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Fateh to Compete on Two Slates: The Countdown to National Elections Begins

Information Brief No. 125 (14 December 2005)*

By Samar Assad

Overview: With only six weeks left until the 25 January Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) elections, following the 12 midnight deadline (5 p.m. EST) on 14 December 2005 to register candidates, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, the leader of the Fateh party, is now competing for the 132-member legislature with not only the Islamic Resistance Movement Hamas but another Fateh-affiliated slate of candidates as well. This new development is a result of the fragmentation within Fateh, which was exacerbated by scenes of some of its armed members disrupting the party's primaries and storming the offices of the Central Elections Committee (CEC), and of Abbas' cancellation of some primary results and the creation of a Fateh slate based not solely on primary election results.

Two separate polls, conducted by the Jerusalem Media & Communication Center (JMCC) between December 5-9 and the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) between December 6-8, reveal that a majority of Palestinians plan to vote for Fateh. However, the split within the party may hurt its overall results.

Poll Results

Both polls found that a majority of Palestinians plan to vote: 78 percent according to the PCPSR poll and 68 percent according to the JMCC poll. Poverty and unemployment are the main concerns for Palestinians, according to the PCPSR poll. Israel's continued occupation of the Palestinian Territory is ranked the number two concern in the West Bank and the fourth highest in the Gaza Strip. Internal anarchy and chaos ranked third on the PCPSR poll (12 percent). The PCPSR poll surveyed 1,316 people; the JMCC poll 1,119. Both polls have a 3 percent margin of error.

According to the PCPSR, 50 percent of those planning to vote said they will select Fateh; 32 percent indicated they will vote for Hamas; 9 percent said they will choose other groups, including independents; and 9 percent remain undecided.

The JMCC poll found that 60 percent plan to vote for the PLO'that is, Fateh's'platform. Seventy-three percent described Hamas' decision to participate in the election as positive step. Sixty-one percent believe that Hamas will abide by the decisions of the majority in the PLC. When asked which method they preferred for choosing Fateh candidates, 45.5 percent wanted to select candidates through primaries, meaning from within the bases of the party, while 29.7 percent said the Fateh's Central Committee, headed by Abbas, should select the candidates.

The Electoral System

On 25 January 2006, the 1.3 million registered voters in Palestine will cast two different kinds of ballots'a district and a national ballot. At the district level, Palestinians will vote for individuals according to the number of seats allocated for each district. At the national level, voters will indicate their preference among the competing political slates.

There are 16 districts with the following seat allocations: Jerusalem (six seats, two reserved for Christians); Ramallah (five seats, one reserved for Christians); Bethlehem (four seats, two reserved for Christians); Hebron (nine seats); Gaza City (eight seats, one reserved for Christians); Northern Gaza (five seats); Nablus (six seats); Qalqilya (two seats); Tulkarem (three seats); Jenin (four seats); Khan Yunis (five seats); Rafah (three seats); Deir al-Balah (three seats); Jericho (one seat); Salfit (one seat); and Tubas (one seat). The remaining 66 seats within the 132-member body will be determined by a simple majority vote of the district level.

According to the CEC list, 40 candidates are competing for the six seats representing Jerusalem. Thirty-eight are competing for the five seats representing Ramallah, and 54 for the eight Gaza City seats. The five seats representing Khan Yunis are sought after by 48 individuals. Thirty-two are competing for the four seats representing Jenin, and 56 for the nine seats representing Hebron.

According to Dr. Khalil Shikaki, head of the PCPSR, Fateh is highly vulnerable in four districts, three of which have the highest number of seats: Gaza City, Hebron, Nablus, and Qalqilya. Hebron, as the most conservative city, will likely be won by Hamas. Gaza City has been the most critical of corruption within the Palestinian Authority (PA), and Nablus has seen the greatest level of Fateh's fragmentation.

The CEC has until 18 December 2005 to verify all candidacy applications and publish the names of the 444 candidates. The national ballot will be finalized on 2 January 2006, should any candidates drop out of the race or should any slate rearrange the order of its candidates.

Competing Slates at the National Level

As of the 12 midnight cut-off date for candidacy, the CEC reported that twelve political slates of candidates had registered. At the eleventh hour, members of the official Fateh slate, which was last to register, replaced Prime Minister Ahmad Qurai' as its head with the popular leader Marwan Barghouthi, currently imprisoned in Israel. However, Barghouthi, along with a number of Fateh's "young guards," is also running as the head of the Future slate. Barghouthi's associates called the move by the official Fateh slate a "bargaining chip."

The Future slate, which was registered by Barghouthi's wife who is also running on the slate, includes former PA Security Chief and Civil Affairs Minister Mohammed Dahlan and Abbas' current Security Advisor Jibril Rajoub. The CEC will have to look into the legality of Barghouthi leading two slates.

Along with Fateh and Future, ten other slates are now competing: the Freedom slate, headed by former Finance Minister Salam Fayyad, which includes Dr. Hanan Ashrawi and the Geneva Initiative architect Yasser Abed Rabbo; the Alternative slate, headed by DFLP Secretary-General Qais Abdel Karim and made up of a coalition of the Palestinian People's Party, the Democratic Front for the Liberation (DFLP) of Palestine, and the DFLP's offshoot Fida; the Independent Palestine slate (National Initiative), headed by Dr. Mustafa Barghouthi (unrelated to Marwan Barghouthi); the Abu Ali Mustafa slate (Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, or PFLP), named after its former Secretary General, who was assassinated by Israel, and headed by its current Secretary General Ahmad Saadat who is in a PA-controlled jail in Jericho; the Change and Reform slate (Hamas), headed by Ismail Hanyieh; the Abu Al-Abbas slate (Palestinian Liberation Front); the Freedom and Social Justice slate; the Popular Struggle Front slate; the Freedom and Independence slate (the Palestinian Arab Front); the Palestinian Justice slate (independent); and Waad (independent). The remaining 66 seats within the 132-member body will be determined according to the percentage of votes received by each slate.

Marwan Barghouthi's associates say the decision to create a second Fateh slate, Future, was due to dismay at Abbas' decision to cancel some primary results and his placement of candidates who lost in the primaries on Fateh's national slate. Barghouthi was also unhappy that the "young guards" who won the primaries were told to compete on the district level, making their success more difficult.

What Does This Mean?

The fragmentation within Fateh may have a negative affect on its performance in the upcoming election. With polls revealing that Palestinians want an end to anarchy and chaos, Fateh's internal deterioration could sway the undecided votes away from Fateh.

A possible indicator for how badly Fateh has been damaged by the recent events will be the results of the 15 December 2005 municipal elections, which will be held in 42 districts.

Samar Assad is Executive Director of The Jerusalem Fund and its educational program, The Palestine Center. The above text does not necessarily reflect the views of The Fund, and can be used without permission but with proper attribution.


* Updated at 10am on 15 December 2005 with new information released by the Palestinian Central Elections Committee.